Tuesday, November 11, 2003
Computer Reseller News has published an interview with Marc Andreessen that raises the kind of problem that needs a bit of study.
"
Q Do you think the recent movement in technology stocks is a sign of another mini-bubble?
A Not in the slightest. There has been a big crisis of confidence in the industry and technology stocks got very depressed. The industry has largely recovered from this but the people in the stock market don't get it.
"
Sorry to be boring but the old stuff about ratios of share price to earnings has some relevance even now. "They just don't get it" is ok as a general description of a lack of awareness about the web. However the current valuations could go in various directions.
Elsewhere there is reference to a generational shift that could take 25 years. That sounds much more sensible. There is still a problem in maintaining investment through the occasional financial downturn. Theories of 25 year waves often deal in up and down. Except at Wired of course.
"
Q Do you think the recent movement in technology stocks is a sign of another mini-bubble?
A Not in the slightest. There has been a big crisis of confidence in the industry and technology stocks got very depressed. The industry has largely recovered from this but the people in the stock market don't get it.
"
Sorry to be boring but the old stuff about ratios of share price to earnings has some relevance even now. "They just don't get it" is ok as a general description of a lack of awareness about the web. However the current valuations could go in various directions.
Elsewhere there is reference to a generational shift that could take 25 years. That sounds much more sensible. There is still a problem in maintaining investment through the occasional financial downturn. Theories of 25 year waves often deal in up and down. Except at Wired of course.
# posted by will789gb : 3:25 AM
Friday, November 07, 2003
This blog is to link to www.cybercrash.co.uk
The aim is to try to understand what is going on with the finances of the internet. The theme is to try to be positive about the future and find a way through the problems.
As of October 2003 it may seem that the crash is over. Amazon share price is heading back towards where it was. Macromedia wobbles but is on a fairly high ratio to earnings.
However something feels slightly odd about it all. There has not been the sort of credit crunch associated with the end of a downturn. The UK economy seems to be based on consumer spending financed by a housing boom.
So there is no clear view to be expected from this blog.
The internet is a major change in technology. There has been a crash of maybe 80-90% in many stock values from the highest value. There may be more falls to come. Kurt Vonnegut's analysis of Cinderella shows a chart of fortune from a high at the ball to a crash followed by happy-ever-after. He thinks this kind of plot is 'in our bones'. Some similar form of story telling would get enough support for internet development to continue. In the UK the Guardian has stopped a page on the new economy but still includes some web items as 'media'. Maybe that is the best way to look at it.
The aim is to try to understand what is going on with the finances of the internet. The theme is to try to be positive about the future and find a way through the problems.
As of October 2003 it may seem that the crash is over. Amazon share price is heading back towards where it was. Macromedia wobbles but is on a fairly high ratio to earnings.
However something feels slightly odd about it all. There has not been the sort of credit crunch associated with the end of a downturn. The UK economy seems to be based on consumer spending financed by a housing boom.
So there is no clear view to be expected from this blog.
The internet is a major change in technology. There has been a crash of maybe 80-90% in many stock values from the highest value. There may be more falls to come. Kurt Vonnegut's analysis of Cinderella shows a chart of fortune from a high at the ball to a crash followed by happy-ever-after. He thinks this kind of plot is 'in our bones'. Some similar form of story telling would get enough support for internet development to continue. In the UK the Guardian has stopped a page on the new economy but still includes some web items as 'media'. Maybe that is the best way to look at it.
# posted by will789gb : 5:01 AM
